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Doing It The Hard WayPosted on July 29, 2010 at 8:07 AM
When I turned on the game a little late last night, I was well-pleased to see that the Cards had already been serious, putting up six in the top of the inning. And even though Jaime Garcia allowed two runs of his own in the bottom of the frame, I figured the Cards were well on their way to a routine victory.What I should have realized is, for the 2010 Cardinals, nothing is routine. A meltdown by the bullpen in the eighth gave the Mets the tie, but the Cardinals were able to pull out an 8-7 win with an Albert Pujols single in the 13th. Maybe the next time Garcia and Johan Santana match up, the teams can get it done in regulation. Pujols played the latter innings with a calf muscle that was bothering him, as evidenced by him pulling up on a grounder to first and not breaking up a double play. Between that and the long flyout that he had in the first inning, a ball he felt like he hit harder than many in his career, it was shaping up to be a very frustrating night. Still, he hung in there and got the base hit when the Cards needed it. A 3-7 night got him up to .298, so a good game this afternoon and he'll be back over .300. Also good to see Matt Holliday go deep and for the Cardinals to put together a solid rally against a top pitcher, especially with two outs. Garcia had a solid base hit in that inning with the bases loaded (it's almost mind-boggling that they walked Brendan Ryan to get to him) and, save for his first inning, had another very good outing. I was hearing on ESPN Radio yesterday afternoon that he was the frontrunner for the Rookie of the Year, so it's nice to see that he's getting recognition outside the Gateway City. The Goat, in my mind, is Dennys Reyes. I know Tony La Russa has his reasons for the move, but with the ineffectiveness of Reyes against lefthanders, I don't think I'd have brought him into the game last night with a 7-5 lead. You only needed one out in the eighth, so I think I'd have used Ryan Franklin for the save. Reyes walked his first batter and gave up a two run single to the next, forcing TLR to then bring in Kyle McClellan. That seemed risky to me as well, knowing McClellan's history in tie games, but it worked out. Taking stock of the Redbirds, it's pretty clear they could use another starter, some more effective lefthanded relief (though I will say Trever Miller pitched a good game last night, going two innings and allowing just a hit), and a middle infielder than can hit. That's a lot to ask for, especially since there aren't a lot of chips to trade. In fact, there seems a distinct possibility that no trade will get done at all. This really wouldn't surprise me any. Save for Roy Oswalt, I wasn't sure who the Cardinals might get, and it seems that Oswalt is headed to Philadelphia now. There's been no talk that the Diamondbacks are willing to move Stephen Drew, so I'm not sure who would be out there that'd help out in the middle infield. The Cards were briefly linked to Miguel Tejada yesterday, but sadly he's not even that much of a step up from what the Redbirds currently have. So it may be hold the line, wait for Kyle Lohse and David Freese to get healthy, and hope that the team finds some sort of consistency. It's a plan. Maybe not the best plan, but it may be the best possible plan. Today, it's a matchup of pitchers that, if you are in public relations, you promote the hitters. Blake Hawksworth goes for the Cardinals, which means that a night after running through a lot of the bullpen, they'll probably be needed again today. Yesterday, the Cardinals sent down Fernando Salas and brought up Mike MacDougal, who got the win in the game last night. They can't bring Salas back for 10 days, so I don't know if they have any more procedural moves they can make or if they'll just limp by. Hawksworth may have to take one for the team if he gets behind early, which could be ugly. The Mets send out R.A. Dickey. Dickey is having probably his career year, with an ERA around two and a half and a K/BB rate around 3. The knuckleballer hasn't been getting support, but the way the Mets play at home (and the Cardinals play on the road), he may not need much. Could be a tough one today. Don't forget that, starting tomorrow, guest bloggers take over this space for a week. Tomorrow you have Bill in the morning and Brian previewing the Pittsburgh series in the afternoon. Hope you make them feel welcome and comment often on their posts. Then, when you've gotten in that habit, you can comment on mine when I return!
Frustration RevistedPosted on July 28, 2010 at 8:47 AM
I thought this was behind us.Whatever corner the Cardinals turned after the All-Star break, they've turned another one or two and seem to be back where they started from--a frustrating team that can't get anything going. And when the big gun has an off night, you know things aren't going your way. I guess you could see it coming, though. There was a lot of talk about the return of Adam Wainwright to New York for the first time since the '06 Series. There was also the possibility that he could set the record for best ERA ever in the month of July. With enough hype and focus, it seems like things come crashing down, which is what happened last night. Sounds like Waino just couldn't get comfortable last night, and I guess nights like that are going to happen. They aren't anything to distress over, save the fact that it means the Cards have now lost four out of five since their eight-game winning streak and there's a good possibility they'll lose this NY series as well. Jaime Garcia goes tonight, which is good, but then Blake Hawksworth is Thursday and you never feel completely confident when it's not one of the big three on the mound. There wasn't much to write home about with the offense, either. Albert Pujols went 0-5 and dropped his average to .297. I'm still about 50% certain that AP's streak ends this year and he doesn't hit .300. If he does read this blog, maybe that'll get him fired up, but he's not looked quite himself at all this season. He's still putting up good numbers, but if the year ended today, would you necessarily give him the team MVP award? When Brendan Ryan is the hero of the game, odds are it wasn't a great offensive night. Ryan, though, went 2-4 and got that average back up over .200, which is pretty impressive since just three days ago it was around .185. He's been streaky all year, though--getting up to over .200, then slumping off. He was at .220 at the middle of June, then tailed off. Still, that's his third multi-hit game, all coming since that trade rumor of him to Houston came out. Maybe that lit a fire under him. There doesn't seem to be much stirring on the trade front, here just four days before the deadline. John Mozeliak went on record as saying they don't want a band-aid solution in the middle infield, so that would seem to rule out much of a deal there, though I guess they could still target Stephen Drew if the Diamondbacks are willing to move him. They might get a innings-eater type of pitcher, but it doesn't sound like anything too exciting. The best news out of the whole thing is that they are pretty close to signing Seth Blair, their second pick (first of the supplemental round) in this most recent draft. Blair isn't the most exciting name that people are looking at--Zack Cox and Austin Wilson fit that bill--but he's still a very good arm and it's always good to have young pitching in the minors. I think we are seeing the results of what happens when you don't have that right now. The newest Sports Illustrated comes out today and Stan Musial graces the cover. I am very interested in reading the article, especially since it is written by the great Joe Posnanski. It's unfathomable to me that this is the seventh Musial cover but the first that he hasn't had to share with someone. Then again, that seems to be Musial's lot in life on the national stage, always sharing, always being overshadowed. Baseball is going to lose a lot when he goes. Cards and Mets try it again tonight. Jaime Garcia goes against the Mets for the second time this year, both times on national television. Hopefully this time he doesn't have to wait 13 innings after he leaves the game to see how it turns out. He's facing off against Hisanori Takahashi, who also pitched in that 20 inning game as a reliever. He's gone back and forth between the rotation and the pen, but last time out allowed two runs in seven innings against the Dodgers. Could be another long night for the bats. It's Wednesday, which means United Cardinal Blogger Radio Hour! Tune in tonight to hear me talk with Dave Doyle from The Mets Report about the series, what the Mets need to do, and how long until they start talking about The Curse of Yadier Molina. Always appreciate having callers, so if you are around from 9:30 to 10:30 Central tonight, listen in or call in at 646-929-1758!
Gaining On The Off DayPosted on July 27, 2010 at 8:56 AM
The Cardinals hit the Big Apple yesterday. They saw the sites (Ryan Franklin went to the Statue of Liberty with his family, according to the official Cardinal Twitter feed), made some appearances (more on Albert Pujols in a bit) and picked up a half-game on the Reds when Milwaukee beat them 3-2. In other words, just a fine day over all.Stayed up and watched Pujols on David Letterman last night. It was interesting to see him out of his normal environment, as it were. He seemed to be trying to hide his nervousness, but overall came off well, talking about some of the Mets players and his son playing baseball and wearing him out before games. Then he went out and hit some dingers. Well, maybe not dingers, but he did show his batting eye, not swinging at a lot of Denis Leary's junk. He got plunked once and made like he was charging the mound, which was great. (BTW, while Dave is batting, you can see intrepid St. Louis reporter Derrick Goold taking pictures. He's in the grey shirt and shorts.) The odds of Roy Oswalt continue to dim, as now he has come out and said that location isn't a big deal, meaning Philadelphia is, at least publicly, still in the mix. He also has stated that the option for 2012 needs to be picked up, though some of the money can be deferred. That could be another draw back for the club. Bernie Miklasz thinks it was a good thing that John Mozeliak stated that the Cardinals probably couldn't get him and that he didn't think there'd be a deal. The thought is that Houston may come down on their demands if people start backing off. That's a possibility, because having an unhappy Oswalt in the Houston clubhouse after the deadline may be a problem, not only for this year but for the years to come. Houston could still deal him in the offseason, but you'd figure they'd get more for him right now. From what I hear on Twitter, there's not any plans to move him before his start Friday in Houston. I think about the only way St. Louis will get him is if 1) Houston decides he has to be dealt at all costs and 2) Philadelphia falls out of the race this week or decides to go in a different direction. I don't know if either of those will come to play. For the record, Matthew Leach doesn't expect the club to get him either. Which may mean that the reinforcements may have to come from within. The first step on that path was taken last night, as Kyle Lohse made his first rehab start for Memphis. The results were pretty strong (3 IP, 3K, 0 BB, 2 R, only one earned) and Lohse reported none of the swelling/pain issues that he'd been having prior to surgery. It very rarely pays to be optimistic about a return to health of a Cardinal, especially a pitcher--just look at Brad Penny--but I feel that if Lohse is recovered, he can get to something approaching 2008 levels. Which would be a huge boost for the back of the rotation. Further dampening any big trade talk was last night's performance by Shelby Miller. Miller went seven innings, allowing only three hits. If the front office was iffy on his potential, if they were thinking that he might not pan out and so they should ship him off, that kind of dominance would make them think twice. Miller has had some exciting peripherals this season, so it'd be a shame to lose him and I think the Cardinals are going to be very, very hesitant to put him in any kind of deal. A couple of links for you. First off, More Hardball has a look at Double J (yes, I'm going to keep using that until it sticks or someone tells me not to) on their blog today. I think they overestimate Jay just a bit, but it's nice to see him getting a little attention. You have to figure he's one of the biggest trade chips the Cardinals have. Also, keep an eye out over at Mets Gazette today. I answered some questions for them about the Cardinals and the upcoming series this weekend for my fellow BBA member. I expect they'll be up later this morning. Cards get the Mets tonight, looking to put together another winning streak. Adam Wainwright pitching in New York, even if it's a different stadium, brings this memory to our minds. You think Carlos Beltran might ask for the night off? Jonathan Niese goes for the Mets. He looks to be having a good year, and in his career he's thrown 1.2 scoreless innings at the Redbirds. Could be a good matchup. We'll see if Dave passed along any hitting tips to Albert last night!
A Weekend In ChicagoPosted on July 26, 2010 at 2:15 PM
You know, one loss doesn't necessarily take the excitement out of a winning streak. Three straight losses, including two to the Cubs? That'll do it. Quick look at the three games:Friday (5-0 loss) Hero: Jon Jay. One for two with two walks. In a game where the Cards don't score, it wasn't his fault. Goat: Jeff Suppan. It wasn't all his fault. Soriano should have never come up with a runner on in the fifth; Skip Schumaker should have been able to turn that double play. The wind-blown popup that fell between Suppan and Jason LaRue should have been caught. That said, he did give up three home runs, including a leadoff shot. Not exactly the best way to kick off a game. Notes: The defense was very sloppy in this one, as I said. When the Post-Dispatch hints that perhaps the team didn't play very hard, it's not a good game. Good to see PJ Walters, albeit briefly, come in and have a quality game. Of course, that didn't do him much good since he was sent to Memphis right afterwards. Saturday (6-5 loss) Hero: It should go to Tyler Greene. Two hits, two RBI, scored a run....but that double play with two on and one out in the eighth is tough to swallow. So, because of that and because I've been so rough on him, I'll give it to Brendan Ryan. Two hits, plus reached on a fielder's choice due to an error. I think those trade rumors got to Ryan, because he played much better this weekend than he's been playing. Goat: Blake Hawksworth. Six runs (five earned) in just over four innings isn't going to win a lot of ballgames. True, two of those runs scored when Mitchell Boggs wild-pitched them home, which turned out to be the deciding factor in the game, but they shouldn't have been on in the first place. Notes: It was good to at least see some fight in the team, never giving up and continuing to work its way back. That doesn't always happens, as was shown Friday. Another two hit day for Jay with a double, which is now my non-creative nickname for him, Double Jay. Sunday (4-3 win in 11) Hero: Felipe Lopez. If nothing else, that might be the coolest bat flip ever. That said, kudos to Skip Schumaker for his four for four night. Be nice to see his bat going as well. Goat: Yadier Molina. That double play in the 10th could have been a killer. Then again, it'd have been nice if Matt Holliday could have score on Schumaker's hit as well. Notes: Another important home run for Albert Pujols. This isn't going to be any sort of career year for him--I'm almost convinced he'll ruin his streak by hitting .298 or something--but he'll still be 30/100/100 runs and that's pretty good for a bad year. The Cardinals do at least salvage the end of that series and, with the Mets, Pirates and Astros coming up, they have a chance to put some distance between them and Cincinnati before they go Great American Ballpark two weeks from tonight. When they go to GAB, though, they'll likely do it without The Man From Houston. John Mozeliak downplayed a lot the chances of getting Roy Oswalt, and everything that I read across the internets seems to point in the same direction. While if it was up to the player he'd have been in St. Louis yesterday--word is he was talking to an unnamed Cardinal player before Oswalt's start on Saturday--he doesn't necessarily have the last word. Houston's demands are on the extravagant side and, as I noted months ago, dealing within the division means they are asking for even more. Jayson Stark this morning indicated that Drayton McLane has to be able to brag that he won the deal, which means that the Cardinals are in trouble. If it was more about salary relief, I think that the two clubs could match up. Jon Jay and others not named Shelby Miller could work if the Cardinals are taking on a large chunk of the payroll. If that's not the motivation, though, I don't see it happening. It sounds to me that Philadelphia is working to get him but I'm not sure that Oswalt will approve the deal. I expect we'll see him in a Houston jersey when they come to town next week. As for other options, I don't know what they'd be. The team will be closely watching Kyle Lohse's rehab start tonight in Memphis. If Lohse looks strong, chances are the pressure is off somewhat for a quick move. If something happens to him or he gets beat around the yard, Mozeliak may be working the phones a little harder. I'm not sure what he'd come up with, as there's not been really any linking between the Cardinals and anyone but Oswalt, but you have to figure he has a few irons in the fire, even if none of them are red hot yet. There was other Cardinal-related news this weekend as Whitey Herzog made it into the Hall of Fame and his #24 will be retired by the Cardinals on Saturday. As a fan that grew up under Whitey's tenure with the club, I say it's an honor well deserved. No one else defined a decade like he did with his strategy and tactics. Congrats to the White Rat! Here in a few years, he'll be joined by the current Cardinal manager and there will be a long discussion about who the best manager was. No game tonight, unless you are monitoring Memphis. Albert's on David Letterman tonight, so be sure to catch that. Derrick Goold has been posting pictures on Twitter of the outside of the studio where Albert is going to do a little hitting. Don't know if he gets the interview inside first or that's all he'll be doing, but he can ask his hitting coach for some tips. If you didn't catch it, the schedule for some guest bloggers during my vacation is below. Check it out and please support them over the next week!
Good News For My Readers (Both Of You!)Posted on July 26, 2010 at 1:28 PM
A regular post looking at the weekend will be up later on, but I wanted to go ahead and make a scheduling announcement.Every year, my vacation consists of a trip to Ohio, where my wife grew up, to see her family and nowadays let the grandparents see the grandkids. The first year of this blog (and I can't believe that I let the three year anniversary of this place get past me), Mike from Stan Musial's Stance was nice enough to write both here and his blog during that time. Last year, I just let the blog sit quiet while I was gone. This year, I've tapped into some of my connections in the United Cardinal Bloggers and the Baseball Bloggers Alliance to bring you what I think will be quality coverage during my time away. Honestly, I'm pretty excited to read all the posts myself! This Friday, July 30, Bill from i70baseball will kick it all off. Bill's a member of the UCB as well as the BBA and you've probably heard him in his role as part of the UCB Radio Hour. i70baseball is now starting its third week and is going strong, with the website and its own podcast. Friday afternoon, we'll have the first of our series previews. Brian from Raise the Jolly Roger! will be looking at the weekend tilt between the Cardinals and the Pirates. RTJR is a quality Pirates site and Brian should be able to give us an unique perspective on that three-game matchup. A week from today is actually my 35th birthday, so it's another day of double posting here at CATB. First off, Joe Teterault from the BBA blog Teterault Vision will be taking the outsider's view of the NL Central race after the trading deadline has passed. I look forward to seeing what Joe's opinion is on one of the tightest races in baseball. Monday afternoon, our friend James from Astros County will stop by and give us the preview of the Houston/St. Louis series. I'm sure there will be a lot of discussion about Roy Oswalt, whether a trade is made or not. Tuesday, we'll continue with the NL Central theme as Shawn, another friend of this blog that writes regularly at Cincinnati Reds Blog, will venture into enemy territory to give his perspective on the pennant race. I'm sure he'll discuss what has to go right for the Reds to stay alive, what worries him about the Cardinals, various things of that nature. Wednesday, Mike Lynch from the incredibly well-respected blog Seamheads will be in charge. Mike plans to talk about Austin McHenry, a outfielder on the Cardinal teams back in the early twenties who died during his playing career. Always good to get a dose of Cardinal history, as rich as it is. Thursday, Bill will get a second dose of guest blogging, most likely talking about whatever has happened that week and hopefully about a good long winning streak that the Redbirds are on. The last day of the guest bloggers is another great one. Friday morning will have Erik Manning, well-known throughout the Cardinal internet universe for his founding of Future Redbirds and his work at many places, including Play A Hard 9. Whatever Erik will be discussing, it'll be good and backed up with quality stat work. Our guests wrap up with the last of our previews. Michael from Marlin Maniac will be breaking down the in-season matchup of the Feathers and Fins spring training rivalry. There might even be some Josh Johnson vs. Adam Wainwright for Cy Young discussion....the pitching matchups don't go out that far, but if those two match up, it better be on Saturday or Sunday when I am home to see it. I hope that you will enjoy the talented writers that will be filling this space during my absence. I also hope you'll come back to this talentless hack when I return with a minimum of complaining!
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Streak Stopped, Talk Just StartingPosted on July 23, 2010 at 9:42 AM
You know that, when Cole Hamels is pitching against your team, you are going to likely have a long night (or, in this case, afternoon). However, I'm not sure you expect it to be that long.However, this loss was different than most of the other losses this season--the Cards just got beat. They have a whole lot of situations where they threatened. When you only get one hit, you are pretty lucky to get into the 11th with a chance to win. I believe I saw where it was the first road one-hit, 11 inning game since 1900. That's dicing it up pretty slim, but you get the idea--when it's historic, there's not a lot you can say about it. Being that there wasn't just a whole lot of offense, you probably give the Hero tag to Adam Wainwright again. Six scoreless and, while he wasn't as sharp as he's been in the past, he still made the pitches he needed to make to get out of jams. It was pretty obvious early that one run would be enough to win this thing, and Wainwright made sure not to give up that run. I thought it'd be interesting to compare the Wagonmaker's numbers to those of the other pitchers most likely to be mentioned in the Cy Young voting. I've never quite figured out tables on here, but here are the numbers. Wainwright: 14-5, 1.94 ERA in 148.1 innings, 136 K, 1.00 WHIP Josh Johnson: 10-3, 1.61 ERA in 134.1 innings, 141 K, 0.97 WHIP Ubaldo Jimenez: 15-1, 2.38 ERA in 132.1 innings, 118 K, 1.07 WHIP Roy Halladay: 10-8, 2.40 ERA in 154 innings, 131 K, 1.06 WHIP Tim Lincecum: 10-4, 3.18 ERA in 130.1 innings, 138 K, 1.27 WHIP Looking at that, the first thing that stands out is that Lincecum's Cy streak is probably over, because it's going to be very tough for him to pass up all those guys in the second half of the season. The second thing is that, to me, it's a two-man race for the most part. Jimenez does have the gaudy record, but he's slumped lately and that's the only thing he has on Wainwright or Johnson, and Waino's almost right there in wins anyway. On the downside yesterday, I wanted to go with Aaron Miles, whose defensive maneuvering added pitches to Wainwright's total, but I don't think you can avoid Kyle McClellan. When you give up the game-winner, you are often going to be the Goat. Matthew Leach had some amazing stats up on Twitter yesterday, showing that McClellan has very good numbers in games where he comes in ahead or behind, even one-run affairs, but he's given up as many home runs in tie games as any other type of game in about a third of the at-bats. Don't know what it is, but maybe Tony La Russa should keep him on the bench in those situations for a bit. The buzz continues to swirl, though, about Roy Oswalt. He still wants to play for St. Louis, St. Louis still wants him. But matching up Houston's demands against St. Louis's resources may be a difficult task. There's a lot of thought that the option is not going to be exercised, that Oswalt wants out of Houston and will drop that if it makes a deal happen. Since St. Louis reportedly offered two young players from their current major league roster, it's fun to speculate who they were. You figure one of the was either Jon Jay or Allen Craig, that's a given. The Cardinals need to free up some room in the outfield and that's the logical way of doing it. The second is a little more up in the air. You'd think it'd probably be someone like Blake Hawksworth, perhaps McClellan (though I'd be very surprised if so), but what if they offered Brendan Ryan in that trade? It'd probably more likely be Tyler Greene, but if Houston had thoughts that Ryan's offense would come back around, that'd have to be at least an intriguing notion. To throw another log on the fire, apparently the Diamondbacks are now committed to moving Dan Haren before the deadline, and the Cardinals at least have their hand in on those discussions. Again, I don't know how it works into the payroll and I don't see how the Cards have the prospects to get him, but it'll lead to some interesting talk. Many people seem to prefer Haren to Oswalt, and while I like both, Arizona is going to have to come off their demands for him if they plan to move him. Cards and Cubs match up this afternoon. Cardinals send out Jeff Suppan, Cubs Randy Wells. As you remember, last time the Cards faced Wells in Wrigley on a Friday afternoon, he didn't get a single out. You have to figure he'll be better this time, but the offense really is going to have to be active today if they are going to start a new winning streak with Suppan on the mound.
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Exciting Times In Cardinal NationPosted on July 22, 2010 at 8:20 AM
You know things are going good when a late-inning win to extend a lengthy winning streak is the second most talked about story today.Let's take the game first, though, before we get into the trade rumor that popped up last night. We've talked about it before, but one of the great things about this winning streak is the fact that they are starting to beat pitchers that have given them trouble in the past. It wasn't part of the streak, but they beat Bud Norris right before it started. They've beaten Kyle Kendrick. Jamie Moyer didn't beat them, though that was at least in part due to his injury forcing his early exit. Last night, they took out Joe Blanton. Even with his rough numbers for this year, Blanton still was able to curtail the offense for a while before Matt Holliday went deep to break the tie. The Cards tacked on--another thing they've been doing well lately--and padded the lead in the eighth, which was great to see. Jaime Garcia put a lot of doubts to rest, at least for a while, with a stellar performance. His off-day discussions with Dave Duncan seemed to help him focus on what makes him effective. To see him go into the seventh against an offense that is one of the top ones in the National League with only one run given up is very impressive. While there's talk of other pitching options, it's not because of Garcia. He's already an amazing #3 starter. If a trade were to happen and move him back to #4, can you just imagine how strong this team would be? The down side to last night's game was Skip Schumaker, who went 0-3 with two strikeouts. It may be a credit to Skip that these games are now noticeable, instead of being considered more of the same. That said, you don't want to have too many of those kind of games this close to the trading deadline. With the offense and the pitching both clicking, it's not surprising the Cards have run off an eight game winning streak now, with the possibility of more. Besides the settling of nerves that Garcia provided last night, there were more stories on the pitching front. The more prosaic of them was the fact that Kyle Lohse threw a simulated couple of innings yesterday and will start his rehab assignment in Memphis on Monday. I'm one of those that didn't believe we'd see Lohse again, so this is pretty impressive news. We'll see if the arm can handle regular pitching, but it could be that Lohse can get back to something approximating 2008 now that he's healthy. I don't know that you hold your breath on that, but no matter what, he'd be a pretty solid #4 starter for the Redbirds right now. Or, perhaps, a dominant number five..... That's because the most earthshaking story came out last night, when Hardball Talk stated that, according to a source, the Cards were the front-runners for Roy Oswalt. If you've ever wanted to hear someone get completely floored when going on the radio, catch last night's UCB Radio Hour about thirty minutes in, when I call up and Josh hits me with that piece of knowledge. It was the last thing I was expecting to hear and it shows. Matthew Leach then came back and added to the report, saying that the Jayson Stark report from earlier in the day, that Oswalt was going to force whatever team to trade for him to pick up his 2012 option, didn't necessarily apply to the Cardinals. Oswalt could make the money work better by working out a deferral or could ignore the issue all together. If this is true, it makes a deal a bit more feasible. Joe Strauss chimes in on the report as well, but nothing indicates that anything will happen soon or even that it is inevitable. It seems a real long shot, but let's think about this some. First off, the upside is pretty obvious. Putting a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Roy Oswalt and Jaime Garcia in the postseason, coupled with a lineup like the one St. Louis has, would probably make them the favorites to win the whole thing. It should be enough to counteract the improving Reds rotation as well as any moves Walt Jocketty could make. I've been a fan of Oswalt's for a long time and would love to see him in Cardinal red. From all these reports, indications are that he's respected in the clubhouse and should fit into the Cardinal culture pretty well. Being that he won the first Darryl Kile Award in Houston back in 2003, I think it's safe to say he'd be a positive for clubhouse chemistry, something John Mozeliak had been looking for. Oswalt's had no major injury history, he is still having a solid year (even if his record doesn't reflect it) and should be able to provide value both this year and next, plus that option year if necessary. The downside is trying to figure out exactly how he works into the payroll structure. If the 2012 option isn't required, that helps a lot. Bill DeWitt has said they have money for a deal, but would be leery of trading off top talent for a rental. Oswalt's 2010 salary is $15 million, so for the rest of the year it'd be, what, $7 million or so, maybe a little less? It's $16 million next year, then it's possible the Cards could decline his '12 option, which would be the first year of the new Pujols deal (assuming he re-signs). Monetarily, perhaps it works. The talent's the thing, not the play. More directly, who would the Cardinals have to give up? You'd expect that one of Jon Jay or Allen Craig would go, because there's not enough room for everyone with the return of Ryan Ludwick. That's not a problem. Lance Lynn might also be in the discussion--again, that's feasible. The kicker is, will the Cardinals have to include Shelby Miller? I'm of two minds on his inclusion. On the one hand, TNSTAAPP. Erik Manning on Twitter last night posted some interesting stats, which basically came down to only 2.5% of pitching prospects become stars. The odds of Shelby Miller fronting a rotation someday are against him. Even if he does turn out to be an ace, FFF--flags fly forever. Would it be painful to see Miller pitching for a divisional rival, pitching against the Cards, maybe even leading the Astros to a title? Sure it would. But if you are able to wipe those tears on your 2010 or 2011 Official World Series Champion handkerchief, doesn't that ease that pain a little bit? You do have to give something to get something. As I said last night, if Mark Mulder had turned out to be what we thought we were getting and had put that team over the top in 2005, the loss of Dan Haren would not be nearly as painful as it is today. On the other hand, payroll has to be a consideration. The Cards are going to need good, young players to give maximum value for minimal dollars in the coming years when they sign up Pujols. Perhaps they think that they have a good line on signing some of this year's prospects. That'd help the payroll in a couple of years, especially if they were able to nab Austin Wilson and Zack Cox. However, to give up a possible front-line starter, even a mid-rotation guy, that can give you quality at a minimum salary, that's a tough sell. It's going to be a long week and a half, it appears. Oswalt's next start is Saturday against the Reds, so I don't expect any move will get made before then (let him beat the closest competition!). If a deal was made Sunday or Monday, Oswalt could pitch the last game of the Mets series in CitiField. One way or another, he'll be pitching in the Houston series August 2-4. It just remains to be seen in which uniform. Cards have the first of three straight afternoon games today, sending out Adam Wainwright to see if they can finish off the sweep. Waino's been pretty good against the Phillies in his career, holding them to a .225 team average. Shane Victorino's been tough on him (5-17, HR) but he's kept Ryan Howard in check (2-11). If they are going to sweep, however, St. Louis is going to have to beat another pitcher that's been extremely tough on them in the past. Cole Hamels has a .194 BAA against the players on the current roster. Albert's had issues (3-17, HR) while Yadier Molina is about as good as it gets (4-13). Wainwright's been dominant at home this season. Hopefully he can keep it up and we can discuss his Cy Young chances tomorrow!
Cardinals Continue To RollPosted on July 21, 2010 at 8:51 AM
What's been the most encouraging thing during this current Cardinal winning streak is that they keep winning in different ways. The first couple of games, they slugged. They've had good pitching performances. They've had comebacks. They've beaten pitchers that normally give them fits.Everything save the comebacks came into play last night. OK, they didn't really beat Jaime Moyer, as he left early with an elbow strain, but they won the game that he started, so that's something. Even if Moyer had stayed in, though, I think the way that Chris Carpenter was dealing last night, St. Louis would have won the game anyway. Carpenter has seemed to figure out his delivery problems and is looking more like his 2009 self. These two games after the All-Star Break are the first time he's put back-to-back solid starts together since he had a three game run from May 28 to June 8. He's been more efficient with his pitches as well, which is another reason to think things are improving. Obviously Carp was the story last night, but you have to give some attention to what Randy Winn is doing. His second home run in as many nights has to make the decisions a little tougher for when Ryan Ludwick returns. As much grief and outrage there was at Winn's signing (and I was part of it, I admit), he's turned into a pretty solid bench option. I think I'd rather him than Nick Stavinoha on a regular basis. If Ludwick does return this weekend, though, what happens? Does Allen Craig, who gets last night's Goat since he was the only starter not to get a hit, get sent down since he still has options? I'm guessing that's the case, assuming John Mozeliak doesn't make a trade between now and then. If Mo is going to make a trade, who is it going to be for and who is it going to be with? According to the Post-Dispatch, scouts from Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Florida and Anaheim were at the game last night. I'd guess the Cards were interested in Kevin Millwood or Jeremy Guthrie from Baltimore and there's talk that they still are considering Dan Haren, which would explain Arizona, but the others? Tampa Bay does seem to have some pitching to spare, with their top prospect ready to go, and if they were in the mood to move Wade Davis, I think the Cardinals would jump on it due to his low salary and the length of time they'd have him under control. That said, it's more likely that TB is trying to move Matt Garza. Garza's a fly-ball pitcher already making $3.5 million and in line for arbitration. That might not be exactly the best fit for the Redbirds. The interest in Florida is likely Dan Uggla. Uggla's having a solid offensive year and would obviously be an upgrade from Skip Schumaker in that regard. However, his defense is as bad as it has always been and, with a ground ball staff, is that the kind of trade-off that you want to make? With Skip's improvement recently, I think I'd be inclined to let him pass, especially at almost $8 million and, I believe, one more year of arbitration eligibility. Not really sure who the Angels have that the Cards would be interested in. Maybe they think they can get something out of Brandon Wood? I know he started as a shortstop, though I don't think he has the range to play there now. I don't see LAA moving any of their pitchers, so maybe that was something that LAA would be initiating or just doing some research. Looks like David Freese is going to wind up being out longer due to that toe after all. If it turns out he won't be back until mid to late August, what does that mean for his return? Does he automatically go back in at third, especially if the team is still rolling along? Will he get back to health in time to do some minor league rehab? You'd like to think he'd make the team just that much stronger, but if they cruise along without him, would it affect the chemistry of the team, something that Mozeliak and La Russa have acknowledged is important? Tonight, the Cards go with Jaime Garcia while the Phillies counter with Joe Blanton. Blanton is another one of those pitchers that has done a number on the Cardinals in the past, but with his 6.21 ERA this season and considering the hot streak the hitters are on, you like St. Louis's chances more than you would have even two weeks ago. Garcia, on the other hand, is struggling. He only got into the fourth last time out and probably will have a close eye on him tonight. If he can get through the first inning or two OK, hopefully the team will have been able to put some runs on the board and he can coast with a lead. While you are waiting around for the game this evening, play with the Albert Pujols Home Run Tracker. Should make for some interesting results, though sadly it is only regular season home runs. Brad Lidge somewhere breathes a sigh of relief.
Cardinal Comeback ContinuesPosted on July 20, 2010 at 11:26 AM
This winning stuff is fun, isn't it? A lot more exciting to watch, a lot less griping and complaining. I think even if the Cards had lost yesterday, the afterglow of the Dodger series might have tempered a little bit of the angst. Like I said in my last post, it seems like a shift has occurred with the squad.I'm sure that most of you have played Monopoly at some point in your life. You know when your opponent has Boardwalk and Park Place, perhaps with houses or a hotel on it, you just hold your breath when you are on that side of the board? Then you roll a six and you dart pass both of them, landing on Go and seeing a stretch where most of the properties are yours? That's what winning both a Jeff Suppan start and a Blake Hawksworth start feels like for me. No losses there, and then you are lined up for the big three. (Though I'm starting to have some reservations about Jaime Garcia, but I digress.) You have to give Hawksworth some credit. The first inning was miserable, but he hung in there, limited the damage, got the double play when he needed it, and kept the team in the ball game. Again, you don't want him and Suppan both in the mix, but if the Cardinals went out and got, say, a Jake Westbrook, I think you could easily make the case for keeping him and waiving Soup. How good is it to see an Albert Pujols home run, especially at a time when it was really needed? I don't know when the last time AP hit a long ball that came at a decisive point in the game. His last five home runs, before last night: #21--at Houston, Cards up 6-0 in the 9th (2-run shot) #20--vs. Milwaukee, Cards down 11-2 in the 5th (solo blast) #19--vs. Milwaukee, Cards down 3-0 in the 7th (solo) #18--at Arizona, Cards up 2-0 in the 5th (2-run) #17--at Arizona, Cards tied 0-0 in the 3rd (2-run) Both of those Arizona home runs were pretty important, so I guess June 29th would be the answer to that semi-rhetorical question. Hopefully it won't be another three weeks before he gets another big one. I don't think anyone in Cardinal Nation wasn't smiling when they saw or heard Allen Craig hit his first major league home run last night. Craig's last couple of days are either a nice fluke or he's starting to get adjusted to the big leagues. Since he's always hit in the minors, there's no reason to think that he's completely out of line with these outings. Good to see that average up to .167, since it was sitting at .050 not that long ago. Of course, with his play, the great results Jon Jay has given, and the fact that Ryan Ludwick is supposed to go make a couple of rehab starts and hopefully be back this weekend, the outfield is a large part of the discussion among Cardinal fans right now. Honestly, I expect one of Jay or Craig to be moved in whatever pitching deal that John Mozeliak makes. I can't say that I'm all that excited about the possibility of getting Westbrook, but being that he seems to fit all the criteria (especially in the "will be a free agent" box), it might be another year of swapping with Cleveland. So the Indians can be St. Louis north with Chris Perez and Jess Todd already there and perhaps an outfielder joining them. Downside of last night was again Colby Rasmus. He didn't strike out, which is a positive, but still went 0-4. He's starting to look like a Jim Edmonds-type of streaky hitter, so maybe he'll get on the upward swing soon. Pitching isn't the only thing that the Cardinals are looking for, of course. The middle infield has been an issue and the idea of moving Felipe Lopez into that mix when David Freese comes back might have taken a setback with the news that Freese broke his toe working out. Hopefully that won't set him back any more, but it's still not what you want to hear. The infielders know that their jobs are really up for grabs, as indicated by the story on Skip Schumaker in the Post-Dispatch. Schumaker has been playing better of late--that play he made to rob Rafael Furcal on Saturday was top-notch--and I don't think he'd catch the brunt of any playing time issues. Would the Cards trade him? I'd be surprised, but stranger things have happened. Cards and Phillies tangle again tonight. When soft-tossing lefty is found in the dictionary, it says "see Jamie Moyer". If anyone is going to slow down this resurgence of the Cardinals, it just might be him. Albert is just 2 for 10 off of him and the person that has faced him the most, Felipe Lopez, has five hits in 27 at-bats. (Hint: that's not good, though he does have a home run against him.) Randy Winn may get a shot with his 4 for 10, one HR career mark against the ageless one. Chris Carpenter goes out to prove that last time around was the start of a trend, not part of his up and down season. He's had some success against Philadelphia, holding the current bunch to a .250 average. Ryan Howard and Jason Werth have limited exposure to him, but both have gone yard in their three at-bats. Should be another good one. Looking forward to seeing just how far this Cardinal train can go!
Who Are These Guys?Posted on July 19, 2010 at 10:34 AM
Is it possible that, during the All-Star Break, aliens abducted the St. Louis Cardinals and replaced them with clones? Or that Tony La Russa gives an amazing motivational talk when he has three days to prepare? It could be, perhaps, that this is a great starting team, as they tore up the beginning of the first half as well.Whatever the reason, it hardly seems like the same squad that frustrated us so much in the first 81 games. After winning the first two games, it'd have been easy to see things slip away. Instead, the Cards pull off the sweep and tie their longest winning streak of the year. Of course, when you have Adam Wainwright going at home, no matter what half you are in, you are looking good. After Saturday's game, Waino is 10-0 with a 1.31 ERA at Busch Stadium. If I remember the stat from SportsCenter correctly, that ties Hal Neuhauser for the best ERA at home this deep into a season. What I also found interesting is that Wainwright is now second in the NL in ERA, passing up Ubaldo Jimenez. He's only one win behind Jimenez, who has been the frontrunner for the Cy Young for quite some time. Josh Johnson is a threat as well, with his 1.62 ERA, but if Waino keeps it close in that category, the fact that right now he has four more wins than Johnson should come into play. There was a line of thought that Waino had peaked too soon, finishing in the top three in the Cy Young the year before his contract rewarded him for it. It's looking like top three just might be where he's going to reside for a while. With the heat, TLR didn't push Wainwright, so you have to give credit to the bullpen, who had done great work the night before and held the Dodgers scoreless in this one as well. Save the occasional hiccup (of which we will discuss soon), the bullpen has been fairly solid most of the year, the Colorado series excluded. Kyle McClellan has especially stepped up, posting an ERA under 2 and, in a world where there were some bullpen arms (say, perhaps, Chris Perez and Jess Todd), he'd have made his bid to be that fifth starter. Instead, he's made himself too valuable to move out of the 'pen. On the downside, Colby Rasmus really looked lost in this game. Three strikeouts in a 0-4 day is not what we want to see out of the youngster, though the report afterwards that he's feeling some weakness in his legs may have led to some of that. It also makes me worried that, at least for some folks, he's going to become the next JD Drew--a talented outfielder that doesn't show much emotion and often has some sort of ailment. I never was one of those that was hard on Drew and I don't think people are going that way with Rasmus now, but the similarities are starting to be there. So the series is won, the heat is strong, and so TLR runs out the scrubs on Sunday, with no Rasmus, Albert Pujols, or Yadier Molina. There is no way this team wins this game in the first half of the season. Yet these clones found a way. Honestly, after Mitchell Boggs had done his meltdown and allowed three runs in the game, I was fairly sure the game was over. I mean, a four-run lead with the big guns in the Dodger bullpen available? I really was thinking that Matt Holliday's flyout with the bases loaded and two out the inning before was the game-changer. A hit there, they get a lead, things maybe are different. 4-0 with these guys, though? Pack it away. And yet, it wasn't. Allen Craig had the two innings of his life so far in the bigs, driving in the first two runs and then, down to the final strike of the game, tying it up with a single off of Jonathan Broxton. Everyone did their part, as Pujols even got the count to 3-2 before hitting it sharply to short for the last out of the eighth. Those extra pitches added up for Broxton, and after Craig's tying single, it was just a matter of time before the Cardinals won. Holliday didn't make them wait long with his long RBI walk-off single. It's the first time in a long while that I have been so wrapped up in a game. I was able to watch almost all of Sunday's contest and, even though the temptation was there to turn it off after Boggs's outing, I'm glad I stayed with it. The eighth and ninth were impeccable dramas, the kind that it seemed teams earlier in the last decade turned out with semi-regularity. It's hard not to feel that a special second half is coming. And I've given a lot of grief to Brendan Ryan over the months, so I have to salute him when he comes through. He had a hit, drew two walks in situations where, as he did Friday night, he could have been too aggressive and swung, and then got down the sacrifice in the late rally. (Trust me, I think he could hear me yelling to get the bunt down after he popped up his first attempt!) I'd like to see Ryan make the comeback as well, though he's looked like he was in the past and then regressed. The Reds lost yesterday, so the Cards are in first by half a game as they face the Phillies while the Reds get the Nationals (and, on Wednesday, Stephen Strasburg). If the Redbirds are still in first when they hit Chicago Friday, look out NL Central. Mark McGwire has been pretty quiet this season. It's a little jarring when they pan the dugout and you see him there, white beard and all, taking notes and watching the action. There hasn't been a lot stirring around him, though there have been questions whether he's been effective with the team. After this weekend, though, he's pretty proud of his charges. Perhaps they have finally adjusted to the new guy. We'll have to wait and see. The last comment on yesterday's game: I note in the McGwire story the note that Joe Torre, who was having his birthday yesterday as well as Allen Craig, had a worse birthday game when he managed St. Louis, being up 11-0 and losing 15-12. That is one game that is burned into my brain. I still remember watching that one, since we got the Houston sports station back then, and just couldn't believe how the Cardinals were collapsing. It's proof that, in baseball, it ain't over until it's over. We sit now 13 days from the trade deadline. John Mozeliak, fresh off his well-deserved extension, is going to have to make a move for a pitcher since it looks like, at this rate, we've seen the last of Brad Penny and we can't be entirely sure when Kyle Lohse will return. There's no way a championship-level rotation should have both Suppan and Blake Hawksworth in it. If nothing else, it wears down the bullpen. What Mo is going to do, I don't know, but hopefully he'll come up with something. Cards and Phillies tonight on FSMW and ESPN. St. Louis does face noted Cardinal killer Kyle Kendrick. Statistics against the current crop of Birds:
Hawksworth goes for the Cardinals. He's been pretty good as a starter, but that Philadelphia lineup, even though it is struggling somewhat, still has a lot of problems in it. His stats against the team, though numbers in relief may not be predictive of his approach to the players as a starter:
Filed Under: Heroes and Goats
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Turning The Corner?Posted on July 17, 2010 at 9:29 AM
It's just been two games. This team has teased a change before and fallen back into frustrating inconsistency. However, with these two games, I really think that, at least temporarily, the Cardinals are on the right track for once.Let's start with Thursday's game. The Cardinals, with a win in their last outing and Chris Carpenter on the mound, would have looked to be in good shape. Then again, they were facing Clayton Kershaw, a very good lefty who had beaten them when the Cards went out to LA, striking out 10 in that game. Going by experience with the 2010 squad, as a fan you go into this game hoping to keep it close until the bullpen comes in, but not exactly with a load of confidence. Instead, though, St. Louis comes out, scores two runs in the first and then continues to pile on. Normally, bases loaded none out with this team doesn't necessarily mean a run, but they were able to get a couple of RBI groundouts. With Chris Carpenter on, that's all that you need. Whatever mechanical issues Carp was having, for at least one night he had them ironed out, allowing only one run over eight innings. I don't think we'll see this every time out--Carp's going to be a little erratic--but if he's close to this kind of form down the stretch, it's going to be a wonderful thing for the squad. It wasn't just the pitching, though, which is the key. The pitching, for the most part, has been pretty good this year, at least at the front of the rotation. The key to this game was that the offense never hit a dead spot, never just stalled out. Everyone contributed something. Allen Craig had his first two RBI with a groundout and a deep sac fly. Albert Pujols had three hits. Matt Holliday had a hit and two walks. Yadier Molina went 2-4 with an RBI. Felipe Lopez and Colby Rasmus both had a hit and a walk at the top of the lineup. Everything went smoothly. Well, everything but one player. Brendan Ryan again had an 0-4, which in this game was bad enough to get you the Goat since no one else had that problem. What cemented it, in my mind, was his at-bat in the fourth. With runners on second and third, one out, Ryan runs a 3-0 count. Everyone in the park knew that Ryan wasn't going to swing at the next pitch. Everyone, that is, save Ryan himself. Kershaw threw ball 4 inside, but Ryan went after it and popped it up to first. There is no way a guy like Ryan, hitting under .200, should ever be swinging in that situation, especially when the ball isn't right down the middle. He should take his walk and be grateful he's on base. It was more painful since Lopez came up and doubled in a run immediately after that. I don't know who the Cardinals might be targeting--there are rumors they are looking at Stephen Drew, which would be interesting due to the way his brother left St. Louis--but I think Ryan's days playing shortstop in a Birds on the Bat jersey are numbered. While there were a lot of good signs from Thursday's game, putting it together with Friday's outing is what really makes me think things might be a-changin'. First off, it seems like Yadier Molina might have needed that All-Star break. For the second straight night, he gets more than one hit, and this time he puts one out of the park as well. Granted, it wasn't the best night by a Molina in the majors last night, but it was up there. Second, for the second straight game the team continued to pile on runs. They scored in each of the first five innings, not being content with that early three-run lead. Again, the offense didn't stop, as every batter had at least one hit last night. Allen Craig got a hit off the bench. Tyler Greene had a pair of hits, further marginalizing Ryan. Even one of Tony La Russa's questionable decisions paid dividends, which hasn't been a guarantee this season. He inserted Randy Winn due to his good history against Chad Billingsley instead of riding the hot hand in Jon Jay. Winn then tripled in two runs and had another hit to boot. When you are going good, you are going good. A couple of pitchers, though, marred the outing. First, Jaime Garcia couldn't get through the fourth, allowing a lot of hits, but limiting the Dodgers to two runs in the third. Hopefully he'll get on track, because his ERA over his last five starts is 4.56, and that counts the seven shutout innings he threw against Milwaukee. I expect that the Cardinals will be pretty careful about monitoring him the rest of the way and, if they do make a trade and an injured starter returns, they may skip him in the rotation once or twice to make sure he's good for October. Still, I think you give the Goat tag to Jason Motte, because he gave up as many runs in 2/3rds of an inning as Garcia did in just over three. It could have easily been worse--if Dennys Reyes doesn't get out Andre Ethier, that game gets a lot tighter and some of the visions of the Colorado series emerge from our nightmares. With the win, the Cardinals have their first three-game winning streak since the end of April. Hopefully this break will turn the page on the inconsistency of the first half and let the full talent of this team come out. The Cards get to send out All-Star Adam Wainwright to lock up a series win this afternoon against Hiroki Kuroda. The Dodgers are one of the few teams that got to Wainwright this season, as he allowed four runs in six innings against them out in LA. Historically.....
Kuroda shut down the Cards in LA, throwing seven scoreless innings. In the past, most of the Cards haven't been able to do much with him.
Before I leave you in this rare Saturday posting, I want to bring up a charity that the Baseball Bloggers Alliance are taking up. It's called Pitch In For Baseball. Pitch In For Baseball collects new and lightly used baseball equipment and ships it around the globe, spreading the word of baseball to countries that might not know much about it. I'd like to ask for your help. Don't worry, it doesn't take anything but just a few moments of your time. State Farm is having a contest where you can enter to win World Series tickets. It's part of their Go To Bat promotion. When you sign up, you have the opportunity to select the charity you are playing for. If you look under "public benefit", you'll find PIFB. Will you go over there and enter, using PIFB as your charity? At worst, you've spent a couple of moments. (There's a game to play to increase your chances at getting tickets, but I hope you have more success than I did, since I couldn't hit the ball at all!) At best, you win World Series tickets. Seems like a no-brainer to me. I hope you'll help out and I hope you have a great weekend!
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